After spending about 25 days in Israel during this past war, my sense is that most Israelis have emerged from the experience more pessimistic than ever about the prospects for a two state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. Here are a few reasons why:
1. As a result of this war, Israelis are in my view feeling less secure now than they were, and this will make it less likely that the average Israeli will be inclined to be ready to withdraw from the West Bank, based on some vague promises by the United states and others that a Palestinian state in the West Bank will be demilitarized. Most Israelis I know are willing to contemplate the emergence of a Palestinian state only on the basis that it is demilitarized. But this conflict has shown them not only that the world hasn't been serious about enforcing a demilitarization of Hamas, but also that it isn't particularly sympathetic when Israel has to defend itself as a result of the failure of this demilitarization. If the world hasn't done a thing up to now to ensure Hamas is demilitarized, why should an Israeli trust that the world will demilitarize a future Palestinian state in the West Bank, one which at some point in the future could easily fall into the hands of Hamas, even if it is Fatah which negotiates it ?
2. Prior to this war, the average Israeli did not realize Hamas has several thousand well-trained fighters, or the sophistication of its war machinery, weaponry, and terror tunnels. And those Israelis who did know about the tunnels underestimated the potential catastrophe they could have brought about. As a result of this war, Israelis have learned from reports from security sources that Hamas had apparently been preparing a murderous assault on Israeli civilian targets for Rosh Hashanah, which begins on September 24. The Hamas plan consisted of what was to be a surprise attack in which 200 fighters would be dispatched through each of dozens of tunnels dug by Hamas under the border from Gaza to Israel, and seize kibbutzim and other communities while killing and kidnapping Israeli civilians. Of course, when Israelis agreed to the disengagement in Gaza in 2005, they never dreamed of this level of sophistication of terror tunnels, and no doubt residents leaving on the border with Gaza are not going to be sleeping well, with many considering relocating.
All of this will in my view make Israelis feel less secure and less likely to want to return the West Bank and find themselves facing Palestinian tunnels into West Jerusalem, Kfar Saba, and other communities near the green line. A two state solution only works if as a result of the deal, there are no further outstanding Palestinian claims–otherwise it is a recipe for disaster for Israel, which will help Palestinians realize the "stages" plan of destroying Israel. No Palestinian leader, including Mahmoud Abbas, has ever been willing to signal an end of conflict and what has happened to the Gaza strip, where there is a withdrawal and no end of conflict, -will make Israelis more leery than ever of withdrawing from the West Bank. In my view, after this conflict, most Israelis will understand more than ever the need for Israel retaining control over the Jordan Valley (to thwart off terror threats from the East and ensure the demilitarization of the West Bank), but the Palestinians are not likely to agree to Israeli military control over the Jordan valley , which makes the prospect of a negotiated two state solution all the more unlikely.
3. When the Rosh Hashanah massacre was uncovered, I began thinking of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem on Mount Scopus. If Israel were to return East Jerusalem, and that fell into the hands of terrorists, imagine how the campus could be surrounded by terror tunnels , that exit into the Frank Sinatra cafeteria, just as the Hamas terror tunnels were dug to exit into a kibbutz dining hall. Wouldn't the Hebrew University Mount Scopus campus become the equivalent of the Gaza envelope communities? Regarding tunnels, it should be noted that the Mayor of Kiryat Shmona on the border with Lebanon says that Hezbollah has dug tunnels to Kiryat Shmona.
4. I remember that when Israel agreed to the disengagement from Gaza in 2005, it used to be said at the time that if Israel realized it had made a mistake in doing so, it could always reconquer Gaza. Well, this war, has shown that this proposition isn't really true. According to Israel’s Channel 2, the IDF presented an assessment of what a full reconquest of Gaza — rather than the limited ground offensive the IDF was ordered to undertake — would entail. Ministers were told that re-establishing Israeli control over the entire territory and clearing it of military threats would involve the deaths of hundreds of Israeli soldiers and thousands of Palestinians, risk the kidnapping of soldiers, endanger Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, batter the economy, and cause riots and more among Israeli Arabs and in the West Bank. My point is that were Israel to withdraw from the West Bank it cannot presume that it will be in a position at some later date of its choosing to easily reconquer this territory. This means Israelis will need to feel all the more sure that withdrawing from the West Bank is the right course of action, but the Gaza experience has no doubt taught Israelis that the opposite is the case.
5. The day that a Hamas rocket struck a house in Yehud near Israel's Ben-Gurion airport nearly causing the closing of the airport was a decisive day in this war. After that happened, Israelis realized they were fighting for their independence-"Nilchamim Al Habayit". Not since 1948 when Moshe Dayan successfully conquered Lod and Ramle in Israel's war of Independence has there ever been a battle over Lod. This war changed that and shortly after that day most airlines cancelled flights I noticed young people on the highway from Netanya to Tel Aviv handing out Israeli flags for drivers to put on their cars. This is done usually only for Israel's independence day. The message in handing out these flags was clear: We know we are fighting for our independence as a country–if our airport is shut down, the country is shut down. We will fight back, and back our government 100% to do what it takes to ensure our airport stays open. I agree with Alan Dershowitz, one of America’s most prominent pro-Israel advocates, who wrote Hamas’s firing at Ben Gurion Airport “may well have ended any real prospect of a two-state solution.” In an article for the Gatestone Institute, a foreign policy think tank, Dershowitz surmised that Israel “will now be more reluctant than ever to give up military control over the West Bank, which is even closer to Ben Gurion Airport than is Gaza.”
“The new reality caused by Hamas’ shutting down of international air travel to and from Israel would plainly justify an Israeli demand that it maintain military control over the West Bank in any two-state deal,” Dershowitz added. Hamas actually wants to prevent a peace deal between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, he argued. “The Hamas Charter categorically rejects the two-state solution, as does the military wing of Hamas. In this tragic respect, Hamas has already succeeded. By aiming its rockets in the direction of Ben Gurion Airport, Hamas may well have scuttled any realistic prospects for a two-state solution.”
